Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest: A Series of Unfortunate Events

Pau Torres lasted 25 minutes, Nicolas Jackson only 45 and Ian Maatsen’s afternoon ended with Villa unable to replace him. Somewhere in between, Alysson scored Villa’s first league goal of the season and Ibrahim Mbaye and Johan Manzambi offered a first glimpse of what the rebuilt side might eventually become. Forest deserved their win, but this was an afternoon when almost every decision Emery made was followed by a problem.

By Nico Valenti

There was a point, shortly after Alysson headed Villa level, when the afternoon finally seemed to be turning. Villa had spent most of it playing football that felt slightly out of sync, Forest had carried the greater threat, and Liam Delap’s goal 50 seconds after half-time had made an already awkward game considerably worse. Yet with Manzambi and Mbaye now on the pitch, Alysson attacking from the right and Villa playing with more urgency, the game had begun to loosen. John McGinn found enough room to cross, Alysson climbed above the defender and, after 372 goalless Premier League minutes, Villa finally had one. ⁠

Fourteen minutes later Forest were ahead again. Between those goals came the moment that probably captures Villa’s afternoon better than anything else. James McAtee caught Maatsen with a challenge that Emery felt should have been reviewed for a red card, Maatsen could not continue, and Villa had already made all five substitutions. McGinn ended up filling in at left-back with Villa reduced to ten. Forest attacked that weakened side, Daniel Muñoz’s delivery was helped on by Morgan Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus finished the move in the 88th minute. Emery was unhappy with the challenge, but afterwards accepted responsibility for having exhausted his changes. ⁠

It would be convenient to reduce the defeat to bad luck. It would also be wrong. Forest had 22 shots to Villa’s seven, and the more conservative xG models put the chances at roughly 1.9 to 0.8 in their favour. Villa had 53 per cent possession without ever really controlling the afternoon in the way that figure suggests. Glasner’s side were more comfortable playing without the ball, more dangerous when attacks became direct and, even before Villa were reduced to ten, produced the better body of attacking work. ⁠

What makes the match interesting is how difficult it became to separate those problems from everything happening around them.

Pau’s departure after 25 minutes mattered. His hamstring problem came four days after he had been arguably Villa’s most important player in Bruges, where his carries and passing repeatedly moved the game beyond the first Forest-like line of pressure. Mings was a perfectly sensible replacement and defended several situations well, but he does not progress possession in quite the same way. Against a Glasner side deliberately protecting the centre and inviting Villa’s defenders to have the first pass, Pau was one of the players capable of turning that invitation against them. His willingness to carry until somebody engaged him had been part of the plan. Once he disappeared, Villa became easier to keep in front of Forest. ⁠

The immediate concern now stretches beyond one afternoon. Emery has confirmed a hamstring issue and there is already discussion that Taylor Harwood-Bellis could be brought into Villa’s Champions League squad if Pau faces a significant absence. Villa can cover the position numerically. Mings, Lindelöf and Harwood-Bellis give Emery plenty of centre-backs, but Pau’s particular contribution is harder to replace. With Tielemans gone, and with this side still trying to work out how it progresses through compact opponents, losing one of its best passers from the back is more consequential than simply losing a starting centre-half. ⁠

The half-time changes, and the change they forced

Emery then reached half-time with another decision partly made for him. Jackson had been booked and referee Andy Madley warned the Villa bench that the striker was close to another yellow. Emery knows Jackson’s temperament and decided the risk was too great. Tammy Abraham replaced him, while Alysson came on for Hemmings because Emery felt Abraham did not offer the same threat running behind and wanted a winger alongside him. ⁠

The logic is understandable. The consequences were more complicated. Jackson had hardly been dominating the match, but he was one of the few Villa players whose movement could ask Forest’s back three to turn. Abraham gave Villa a stronger central reference and somebody to attack deliveries, while Alysson immediately added a willingness to run from outside towards goal. Villa gained something in the box and lost some of the mobility that might have separated Forest’s centre-backs. Then, before the new arrangement had properly settled, Delap scored.

There is a danger in judging Emery’s half-time decisions backwards from that goal. Delap struck from distance less than a minute after the restart; Abraham replacing Jackson did not cause it. Alysson eventually scored the equaliser, so the accompanying change plainly produced something useful. But the two substitutions meant that, with Mings already used for Pau, Villa had spent three changes by the 46th minute. When Barkley and Buendía made way for Manzambi and Mbaye on 63 minutes, Emery had reshaped almost half his outfield side and emptied his allowance with nearly half an hour still to play. ⁠

At that point it looked bold. Twenty minutes later, with Maatsen unable to stand properly on his ankle, it looked horribly expensive.

The Maatsen injury is the more worrying of the two this morning. Emery fears he could be out for a “long, long time”, with the damage understood to be to his ankle. Quite apart from the circumstances of Forest’s winner, that would remove a player whose importance has grown during the opening weeks. Maatsen gives Villa progression and acceleration from left-back, can work outside a winger or move into the next line, and has increasingly become one of the ways Emery makes an otherwise narrow attack wider. Ruggeri offers a very credible alternative, but a different one. If Maatsen is absent for a significant period, the balance of Villa’s left side will have to change with him. ⁠

Alysson gave Villa more than the goal

The equaliser will understandably dominate Alysson’s afternoon. It was an excellent winger’s goal of a slightly unexpected kind: arriving at the far side of the attack and trusting himself in the air. For a player whose reputation has been built more around acceleration and carrying, the header was another useful indication of how he can affect the penalty area.

His wider contribution was encouraging because he gave Villa something the first half had lacked. Alysson wanted to receive facing Forest and move the game forward. He was not always clean, nobody in Villa’s attack really was, but the intent changed the rhythm on that side. His work without the ball was useful as well, something that has been a feature of his profile since arriving from Grêmio. FotMob’s broader profiling places him unusually high for a winger in both aerial duels and defensive contribution, which makes the manner of Saturday’s goal less anomalous than it might appear.

There was economy to his possession too. The available event data records 16 completed passes from 18 attempts, an 89 per cent completion rate, despite operating predominantly in attacking areas. That needs treating carefully. He was not on the pitch to accumulate passes or create repeatedly, but it fits the eye test. Alysson generally kept the ball moving and then looked for the next opportunity to attack. ⁠

He is unlikely suddenly to jump ahead of Garnacho and Mbaye in the hierarchy because of one header, and his final-third decision-making still needs refinement. There are occasions when the first touch or dribble takes him towards traffic when a quicker release would leave Villa in a better position. Yet there is something increasingly useful here. He has appeared in all four league games without starting one, and his combination of direct running, defensive appetite and willingness to arrive in the box gives Emery a different type of substitute. Saturday was the first occasion on which the contribution changed the score.

First glimpses of Mbaye and Manzambi

The most intriguing 27 minutes belonged to two players Villa have spent the opening weeks waiting to see.

Manzambi’s debut has been delayed by the knee injury he carried into the season, so expectations should be calibrated accordingly. What was encouraging was that the characteristic Villa bought was visible almost immediately. He wants to receive on the turn. His first thought is often about the defender ahead of him rather than the team-mate beside him, and there were moments when he took possession and travelled into a space Barkley had previously been passing around.

There was some rust as well. Premier League midfield space disappears quickly and Manzambi occasionally held the ball for the extra touch that had been available to him elsewhere. His positioning when Villa lost possession will need work within Emery’s structure too. Carrying through a midfield line is valuable only if the team is still protected when the carry breaks down. Those details should improve with minutes and familiarity. The encouraging part was seeing the mechanism at all after an injury-disrupted start.

Mbaye’s introduction alongside him changed the width of the attack. He is only 18, and there is little value in pretending his first Premier League appearance was polished, but his starting positions were revealing. He was comfortable staying outside, receiving close to the touchline and trying to attack the defender before Forest could reset. Villa have spent large parts of the opening month manufacturing width through their full-backs, but Mbaye provides it naturally.

The next stage for him is learning when not to attack. The speed is obvious and so is the confidence, but Emery’s wingers have to recognise when the defender has been isolated and when another pass will create a better isolation two seconds later. There were touches on Saturday when Mbaye wanted to force the action because the game demanded something, which is understandable for a teenager making his debut with Villa behind. As he settles, the interesting development will be whether that aggression survives while the choices around it become calmer.

Seeing Manzambi and Mbaye together also offered a brief glimpse of the recruitment logic. One can move an opponent from the inside; the other can stretch one from the outside. Forest had spent much of the afternoon defending with comfortable distances between their lines. Once Manzambi started carrying towards those distances and Mbaye held the outside defender wider, the picture became less static.

It raises an unavoidable question about Jackson.

Emery was right to take the referee’s warning seriously. Leaving a booked Jackson on and losing him to a second yellow would have been indefensible. But tactically, the forward who might have benefited most from Manzambi and Mbaye was sitting in the stand.

Jackson’s movement asks different questions from Abraham’s. He will leave the centre, drag an outside centre-back towards him and then attack the space that movement creates. Manzambi’s carrying could have delayed his need to come short because the ball was capable of travelling through midfield without him. Mbaye holding the touchline could have pulled the wing-back away and increased the channel available between him and the outside centre-back. Jackson would then have had exactly the sort of moving defensive line he exploited in Bruges.

That combination is still hypothetical, and it would be easy to make it sound like the answer to all of Villa’s problems. It isn’t. Jackson needs to control the part of his game that led to Saturday’s substitution in the first place. The warning from the referee was not tactical misfortune; it was partly self-inflicted. If Villa have spent a club-record sum on a striker whose movement is fundamental to the new attack, he has to remain available for the moments when the match begins to suit him. ⁠

But there is something worth returning to. Jackson ahead of Manzambi with Mbaye stretching one side — and Garnacho or Alysson potentially stretching the other — gives Villa a very different attacking geometry from the one that started Saturday. The pieces are finally becoming available at the same time. Emery now needs enough stability around them to find out whether they fit.

Forest did not steal this game. Glasner’s side produced far more attempts, created the better overall chances and looked more settled in what they were trying to do. Villa remain winless after four league matches, with a single goal, and the contrast with the freedom of Bruges cannot be dismissed as an unfortunate afternoon. ⁠

By full-time Villa had lost the match, potentially lost two important defenders for considerably longer, and still had not managed to put their most interesting new attacking pieces on the pitch together.

A series of unfortunate events, certainly. The more important question is what Villa look like when, eventually, the series stops.