Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest: A Different Test for Villa’s New Attack

Three goals in Bruges offered the first proper glimpse of what Villa might become with Jackson leading a quicker attack. Forest should make them work rather harder for the space.

By Nico Valenti

For all the relief that came with three goals in Bruges, the most interesting number was probably 36 per cent. Villa had less of the ball than Club Brugge and looked more dangerous with it than they had at any point this season.

That suited Nicolas Jackson. It suited João Gomes too. Pau Torres could walk the ball forward until somebody came to meet him and, when possession changed hands, there was usually somewhere useful for the next pass to go. Jackson’s goal was the clearest example: Brugge were high, Pau saw it and suddenly the striker was running at goal instead of receiving with three defenders around him.

Four days earlier Villa had 74 per cent of the ball at Hull and spent much of the afternoon trying to work out where to put it. Forest sit somewhere much closer to that problem.

Oliver Glasner’s influence is already fairly obvious. The 3-4-2-1 he used so successfully at Palace gives Forest three centre-backs around their own box, wing-backs who can make it a five and Morgan Gibbs-White starting close enough to the striker to turn a defensive action into an attack very quickly. They do not have to dominate possession to control the sort of game they want. Tottenham had 59 per cent of the ball against them last weekend and 30 touches in the Forest box. They didn’t manage a shot on target.

There is a physical quality to the back three as well. Milenković is excellent when he can defend what is in front of him, Murillo has the pace to cover alongside him and Glasner has enough options to change the third position. Leaving Jackson between those three and feeding balls into him would make Saturday unnecessarily comfortable for Forest.

Jackson has been at his best for Villa when he has refused to stay there anyway. At Hull he drifted towards the channels to combine; in Bruges he dropped away from the centre for Buendía’s goal before later attacking the space behind for his own. Against Forest those movements may be needed to create the space.

If Jackson pulls towards Forest’s right-sided centre-back, somebody has to decide whether to go with him. The usefulness of that movement increases considerably if a Villa player is already holding the wing-back away from the same area.

That is where Garnacho starts to look difficult to leave out.

George Hemmings has done very little wrong. In fact, his willingness to run at Coyle was responsible for Villa’s best chance at Hull, and he looked perfectly comfortable again in Bruges. But Forest is a game in which Villa could do with someone standing a little wider and being a little less accommodating.

Garnacho on the touchline makes the pitch awkward for a back five. If the wing-back stays narrow, Villa can get the ball to him with room to turn. If he goes out, the gap to the nearest centre-back grows. Jackson can move into that gap, Maatsen can arrive around it and suddenly Forest’s three centre-backs are no longer defending at the distances Glasner chose for them.

It is also why I would be reluctant to start Garnacho and Mbaye together just yet. There will be a time for that front line and the thought of both Forest wing-backs being pinned back has obvious appeal, but McGinn gives Villa something useful on the other side. Gibbs-White is too dangerous after turnovers to give him an empty channel, and McGinn can start wide without staying there. He can move closer to Buendía and Jackson when Villa have established possession and recover towards the right when Forest win it.

That imbalance might actually suit Villa.

Maatsen can be the adventurous full-back. Wan-Bissaka can stay a little closer to Pau and Lindelöf. When Villa settle in Forest’s half, it leaves something resembling three defenders behind the attack without Emery having to change the formation. Garnacho and Maatsen can then work on one side while McGinn moves inside from the other.

Cash would make the right much more aggressive if fit, particularly later in the game. Mbaye ahead of him would be an entirely different proposition: Cash outside, Mbaye able to attack towards goal. Put Mbaye ahead of Wan-Bissaka and the winger can stay wide while the full-back protects underneath him. Those are useful choices for Emery to have if the first hour becomes another exercise in moving a back five from side to side.

The midfield is slightly less flexible. Gomes’ suspension is particularly irritating after his performance in Belgium. His role in Buendía’s goal was a small example of something Villa have lacked in the league: he took the ball and travelled with it. A pass gives a compact midfield the chance to shuffle. A player carrying directly towards it eventually forces someone to leave his position.

Kamara and Barkley should therefore start again, and there was plenty to like about Barkley’s game at Hull. He created three chances and moved the ball well. Villa just need to avoid asking the pair to spend another afternoon exchanging possession in front of a defence that is perfectly happy to watch them do it.

Pau can help here. His best moment in Bruges before the goals arrived was almost absurdly straightforward: nobody engaged him, so he kept walking forward with the ball. By the time Brugge reacted, McGinn was receiving around their penalty area. Forest may give Pau the same invitation initially because Glasner will be much more concerned with protecting the passes beyond him. He should take the yards if they are available.

There is also a chance Johan Manzambi gives Emery another option later. He has returned to group training and is being assessed for Saturday, although after a knee injury it would be surprising if Emery asked much of him immediately.

If Villa are still level after an hour and Forest have settled comfortably into their five, Manzambi’s instinct to turn and carry could be useful. He does not need to produce the final pass himself. Drawing one Forest midfielder towards the ball may be enough to give Buendía room behind him or encourage one of the centre-backs to step towards Jackson. Even 15 or 20 minutes would offer Emery something he did not have available against Hull.

If he is not ready, the more obvious change comes outside. Mbaye entering on the right while Garnacho remains on the left would stretch Forest in both directions just as their wing-backs begin to tire. Hemmings offers a less direct change but perhaps a cleverer one if Maatsen is finding room to overlap. Emery has options now that genuinely alter how the same shape attacks.

Forest will have been thinking about the other side of this all week. Glasner’s football becomes dangerous when an opponent gets impatient. A full-back advances, a midfielder follows the attack, the pass into the crowded area fails and Gibbs-White receives while everyone is facing the wrong direction. Forest can go from five defenders to several players running forward very quickly.

Kamara may consequently be one of Villa’s most important players without doing anything particularly conspicuous. If Maatsen goes, Wan-Bissaka does not always need to. If Barkley advances, Kamara needs to remain connected to Pau and Lindelöf. Villa can spend most of the afternoon attacking without allowing the pitch behind them to become the one Brugge gave Jackson on Tuesday.

The centre-back pairing should probably remain untouched. Pau was too influential in Belgium to leave out and his ability to advance the ball is particularly relevant here. Lindelöf has settled alongside him. Forest can make that decision more interesting later if Chris Wood appears and the match begins to revolve around crosses into Villa’s box; Mings or Taylor Harwood-Bellis would then have an obvious use.

So the change I would make is a fairly modest one. Suzuki; Wan-Bissaka, Lindelöf, Pau, Maatsen; Kamara, Barkley; McGinn, Buendía, Garnacho; Jackson.

It looks conservative beside all the new attacking options on the bench, but the shape gives Villa quite a lot to work with. Garnacho stretches one side, McGinn helps crowd the other, Maatsen has licence to advance and Wan-Bissaka gives the possession some insurance. Jackson can move instead of spending the afternoon pinned between centre-backs.

The three goals in Bruges showed what Villa can do when the spaces are obvious. Forest will try to hide them. Saturday should tell us rather more about the new side Emery is building, because most weeks in the Premier League the difficult part isn’t knowing what to do once a gap appears.

It’s making somebody move far enough to leave one.